An Embryonic Deal

Taking Up A Rights Issue

I have 2029 shares in Lloyds Banking Group PLC (code lloy), a FTSE100 company, and so am offered the chance to buy that number of shares in a rights issue, at thirtyseven pence per share.

I was at my accountant's office on Friday week when the message from my broker came in. (My accountant handles my shares). The price on the market was fiftyseven pence. It seemed like a no-brainer, buy and sell on the same day and make a profit, but it was not that simple, it never, or rarely, is. (I have not done this type of deal before). I asked to see the share on a graph, and said I would take up the offer.

I spoke to my broker on the phone, and he said the date of the rights issue is Monday, fourteenth December next. I told him to buy and sell on the same day, and, if the price is climbing, to wait for it to go up further, he said they always would. He said I would need to send eight hundred and fifty euros, to cover the cost of the shares (750) plus his company's transaction fee (100). He emailed bank account details.

I went to my bank and found that to transfer the money would cost twentyfive euros to do it within two days or nothing or fifty cents in four days. I chose the free option.

At home, I looked at the graph on Sharescope and found the share had been trading somewhat flat for the last few days. I did some calculations.

If the market price moved down to .37, I would lose 100 euros, the transaction cost. If it stayed at or around .57 I would make 1156 gross, 1056 net, a profit of 206. Break-even (no loss or profit) = 850/2029, =.41/share.

My brother somewhat got cold feet, and, after another phone call, I found that the last time I could cancel the deal, at no cost to me, is market closing time on Tuesday next, eighth December. The date of the transaction is Monday fourteenth next.

My accountant said the broker consensus is that people should take up the rights issue, and such consensus will probably push the price up. He confirmed that the price usually moves up on the day of issue.

For every penny the share price goes above 41 pence, I make 2029 pence, that is 20.29 euros. The lowest price of the last thirty days was 52.47 pence, apart from recent figures. The price has now been moving up for two days. It moved within a range of .51 to .61 since the offer was made, well above my break-even point. The last time it went as low as .41 was in the middle of July last, since then it has always been above that figure.

Trading is a matter of getting all your ducks in a row, you must understand everything about what you are doing, inside out and backwards. Why would I not take up this issue and hold the shares? First, because I have meagre resources. Secondly, traders say an investment is a trade that went wrong.

I think it was the excellent book on mathematics, Against The Gods, that said that if you have a chance to make a sure hundred or a possibility of making two hundred or nothing, take the hundred.

I am not certain that I will make a profit on this deal, or even that I will take it up, I have until the end of Tuesday to decide that, but I want to know everything about it before I act. I hope there is nothing I have overlooked. If the deal succeeds, capital gains tax will be payable at the end of the year, but only if my capital gain for the year exceeds the threshold.

This deal, if taken, will not be a gamble, but a calculated risk.

Below are prices (pence) on LLOY since the offer was made:

2009..... .....Open..... High..... Low.......Close..... Gross (low * 2029)..... Net Profit (Gross-850)
Fri 27 Nov 56.00..... 61.52.... 54.62.... 58.60..... 1108.24 (euros)........... 258 euros
Mon 30 ".. 56.68..... 58.87.... 54.59.... 55.15...... 1107.63......................... 257
Tue 1 Dec. 55.50..... 56.35.... 53.38.... 54.14...... 1083.08........................ 233
Wed 2 " ....54.50...... 54.56.... 51.11..... 53.10...... 1037.02........................ 187
Thu 3 " ......54.21...... 57.06.... 54.21.... 55.45...... 1099.92........................ 249
Fri 4 "........ 54.76...... 56.95.... 52.20... 56.00...... 1059.13......................... 209
Mon 7 "
Tue 8 " ENTER - take deal or leave it, last day to cancel transaction, day 1 of trade if taken
Wed 9 "
Thu 10 "
Fri 11 "
Mon 14 " EXIT - date of deal, buy and sell on this day, close deal.

The net profit figures shown above are calculated by multiplying the low of the day by the number of shares (and subtracting the cost), but I would hope that my broker would sell at or near the day high on the exit date, 14th December next.

Here's Hoping,

David ****

PS This is partially written in response to A Certain Person who said anyone can tell about a deal they made that turned out successfully. Mainly, I write what is on my mind.
Two other thoughts occur to me.
1. In spread betting, there is no transaction fee and no tax to pay on winnings. That is why it is growing in popularity.
2. Longer term trades have the characteristics of a slow-motion day trade.